The Future of Retirement Planning

The “Future” of Retirement Planning

When prospective retirees decide how much money they can spend in the present year of retirement we need to know not only how much spendable wealth we have today but our best guess of how much we will have in the future.

But not not only spending needs to be scoped out, we need to spend time on the expense side of the ledger. We need to know not only what our expenses were last year but also our best guess of what our expenses will be in the future.

In short, we need a model of our retirement future to properly plan for it and even to determine a safe amount to spend this year.


  • Of the four inputs, only one, our current wealth, is fairly certain
  • Expenses are unpredictable, as well
  • The primary determinant of retirement cost is longevity

There is a small chance that yours will follow a better path than any of these and a small chance that it will follow one worse and we can’t ignore the latter’s risk. (The former would just be sweet – we’re OK with things turning out much better than we expected.)

Though it is true that we can’t foresee our future path, it is also irrelevant — the purpose of the Monte Carlo model isn’t to predict an individual retiree’s path through the future (that’s impossible) but to explore a broad range of possible scenarios and develop some estimate of the probability of each actually being realized. Simulation is essentially a gigantic “what-if” analysis.

With an accurate model forecasting tool, we are able to come very close to what you need for retirement. Gold and precious metals should be part of your overall retirement planning.

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